Portfolio Update: Trump! Trump! Trump!

Trump! Trump! Trump! The biggest news to rock the financial world since my last update is Trump being elected for president. Sorry for the very late portfolio update…nearly a whole month late actually! It will be the last portfolio update of the year, I won’t be doing one for December. Since the last update there has been another big shift in my portfolio…a bigger shift than when I changed my investment policy…

Investing in the U.S. with Trump as the Head

Thanks to Trump and reassessing my employment situation in Singapore I decided that it was time to move my assets back to Australia. I was getting increasingly uncomfortable with the amount of FX risk I was taking and the outlook in the U.S. looked more chaotic under Trump. So over the last two months or so I have been working to wind down my U.S. investment portfolio and moving my capital back into Australia.

Sadly there are a couple of pain points with my overall experience investing in the U.S. while being here in Singapore:

  • Thanks to Trump the U.S. and world equity markets rallied after he was elected. I sold my U.S. investments before that. The market continues to rally and I’m missing it sitting in cash. The opportunity cost is psychological painful but I do still think the market is overvalued overall. The performance numbers below reflects this missed opportunity.
  • I was sitting in cash for a few weeks timing the correct moment to convert my funds back into AUD. Lo and behold, after I converted mid last week the AUD decided to weaken dramatically…(it seems to happen all the time!)

On the positive side though, as I have said before it was a good experience and my financial analysis and valuation skills have improved substantially. This should aid my investment journey in the Australian market.

Overall over the last 1.5yrs the performance of investing activities in the U.S. markets was not financially profitable however on the positive side I didn’t lose any money! The small profits I did make in the U.S. market were able to offset the weakening SGD (currency of my income).

Moving forward, I need to focus on the longer term (holding investments for at least a year!) and improving the financial return of my portfolio. I believe if I continued my time intensive value investing  approach I started with I would have had better returns. I will performing a variation of this approach with my investing journey in Australia. I don’t think systematic investing suits my personality.

A fresh start next year! With that, Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year!

Total Investment Portfolio Returns

nov16_totalreturn

Monthly Investment Portfolio Returns

nov16_monthlyreturn

Asset and Sector Allocation

100% cash.

Equity List

The last snapshot of return from my U.S. Investments as of Nov 30. As you can see, the magic formula performed very poorly. The results would have been much worse if I had followed this strategy at the start of year.

nov16_equityreturns


Disclose:: I am/we are long the equities listed in the equity list above.

Disclaimer: : I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving any compensation for it. Please note that all investments carry some risk. You should be aware that the value of your managed investment may not increase as quickly as expected, if at all, or that the value may go down.  I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Steven